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President Biden and congressional Democrats won a major policy battle when Congress unanimously enacted the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) despite Republican opposition. But who will win the political battle? It will depend on who can best articulate this complex law.
Will Democrats convince voters that the laws will reduce inflation, reduce health care costs, reduce the budget deficit, save the environment, and Raising taxes on large corporations? Or will Republicans convince voters that the new law is actually about funding IRS harassment of conscientious families?
There is a kernel of truth behind all these claims. And more than a little exaggeration and even some outright lies. The public can never be expected to fully understand everything in a 700-plus page bill. But what message will go with the voters during voting in November?
first impressions
a preliminary survey The public’s first impression of the new law is positive. An August 21 NBC News poll found that 42 percent of respondents think the bill is a good idea, while 31 percent think it’s a bad idea.
But more than a quarter are not sure. And the poll framed the bill positively: “Democrats in Congress recently passed legislation backed by President Biden that addresses health care and drug prices, climate change, taxes for corporations, and the federal budget deficit. ”
If the question included “increased funding for IRS enforcement,” how would the response change?
Perhaps more troubling for Democrats, only 26 percent of respondents said the new law would “make things better” for them personally, while 35 percent said it would “make things worse.”
Another 36 percent said it “wouldn’t matter in any way,” which suggests there are millions of willing voters.
spinning
Both sides are going crazy.
Democrats remember the disastrous election results when they failed to promote the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010. Republicans won control of Congress that year by overthrowing the law’s non-existent “death panel”.
And Republicans remember how Democrats reassured the public that 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)) only the rich benefited, when in fact it cut taxes for almost everyone. The GOP let this happen in part because President Trump never cared to promote the TCJA after it became law.
Neither party wants to make the same mistake this time.
Republicans Are Targeting Their Criticism on the Law IRS funding increased by $80 billion in the next decade. About 60 percent of that new money will go to enforcement, which the GOP has turned to an allegation that the IRS is funding an anti-tax army. Former Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who certainly knows better, turned to Fox News ask rhetorically“Will they have a strike force that comes with AK-15s (sic)… ready to shoot some small businessman in Iowa?”
Not moving forward, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) took over Fox and Twitter To warn, “Democrats are making the IRS bigger than the Pentagon, State Department, FBI and Border Patrol combined! Those IRS agents will follow you, not billionaires and big corporations!”
for reference, Sole Armed IRS Agent There are about 2,500 officers who work in its criminal investigation unit that targets drug dealers, money launderers and the like. Cruz, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, probably knows US military alone About 1.4 million active duty personnel.
struggle to define a message
Despite the facts, it seems the GOP has left Democrats struggling to define their message.
In response to Republican claims, Biden says the Treasury Department will increase audits for only the wealthy and big business, relative to “historic” levels. And it denies the allegations of the GOP’s armed agent. But the administration may not have details about how the IRS will spend the new money for six months.
Beginning with the title of the bill, Democrats were the first to try to block the macroeconomic benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. But most analysts found There will be little, if anything, measures to slow inflation.,
He then tried to promote the provision of increasing government health insurance subsidies. But that won’t change what consumers pay for their ACA insurance today. It would have been a political catastrophe for Democrats if they had allowed those more liberal subsidies to end for 13 million people. But merely maintaining the same aid does not produce any resonance.
Other provisions aimed at lowering drug prices for Medicare recipients may be voter-recipients, but they only take effect. gradually over the next seven years,
Finally, Democrats are pushing the law environmental measures, They could generate interest among younger voters, who care deeply about climate change. But it will take years to see a significant drop in projected carbon emissions.
And you can see the other problem: With so many disparate messages, Democrats run the risk of downplaying them all. Republicans are focusing all their criticism on just one target: the IRS.
This suggests that Republicans may be better at the post-passage framing game. Only a tiny fraction of what they are saying is true. But in November it can be successful.
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